eBay Strategies

October Same Store Sales

The ChannelAdvisor Same Store Sales October results are in and there were a couple of interesting trends that could indicate how the Q4 holiday season is going to shake out.

This figure shows the results for 2009 so far graphically: (click to enlarge)

• Amazon led the pack (as usual) with 61% y/y growth - up from Septembers 55%
• Overall at ChannelAdvisor we saw things pick up overall very nicely from the high single digits to 17% y/y.
• eBay had a slight tick down to 4.73% from Septembers 5.1% - that's small enough that I don't think it's cause for any concern.
• Comscore hasn't put out their October numbers, but I suspect they will be flat to down slightly.

17 days to Black Friday!

SSS data disclaimer:

The ChannelAdvisor SSS data represents the combined results of over 3000 retailers.  ChannelAdvisor's mix may be materially different from that of eBay, Amazon or other channels.

SeekingAlpha disclosure: I am long Amazon and Google. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

Free Webinar tomorrow, 11/10/09 - e-commerce gut check

I'm hosting a webinar tomorrow where we'll go over the Q3 results for various companies (eBay, Amazon, Google, etc.) as well as look at the various Q4 forecasts and reveal ChannelAdvisor's October data.

We'll wrap with 10 last-minute strategies that you can implement BEFORE BLACK FRIDAY / CYBERMONDAY and get that last little bit of juice out of your holiday sales.

For you eBay Strategies readers, there will be lots of eBay coverage as well as other channels you maybe on/interested in. (Amazon, Buy, CSE, Search).

I hope you are able to make it, registration is open here:  and if you aren't able to make it, the recording will be available on the same page about 24hrs after the webinar in the 'Webinar Library' section.  The webinar is at 2pm EDT.

Come to think of it - the eBay ads are out!

Last week, eBay previewed one TV ad from its 'Come to think of it' campaign.  Seller reaction was negative with an occasional positive of 'at least they are doing something this year' as you can see in the comments of that post.

Today, eBay has a microsite up here, that shows off all of the new holiday ad campaigns.  Here's the blurb used to introduce the campaign:

eBay isn’t just a marketplace for quirky old lamps.  It is a fertile shopping ground full of deals on both premium-used and brand-new items.  The mission of this campaign is to prove that eBay is THE place to get a deal.  We did this in a compelling, funny, stand-out kind of way to get people thinking of eBay in a new way: as the smartest place to shop for deals on the new and old, high-end and bargain.

They are split into categories: TV, Web Videos, Print, Rich Media banners and Other banners. Let's briefly tour each.

Talent

There are three, well four, folks in the ads that are all up and coming comedians from Comedy Central.

• Jim -Jim Gaffigan, has some CDs and DVDs out. He's got a dry sense of comedy and a good delivery.
• Michaels - Michael Ian Black and Michael Showalter.  You can find their Comedy Central show details here and bios on the links.
• Kevin - Kevin Hart - Stand up guy that tends to talk about his relationship stuff.  This is a great video (safe for work). 

Here's a funny sketch from the Michaels that will prime you for the eBay ads:

Michael & Michael Have Issues
Preview - Michael's Schedule
www.comedycentral.com
Joke of the Day Stand-Up Comedy Free Online Games

TV

There are three TV ad 'flavors':

• Kevin - this is the guy who's wife got last years dress at 40% off and now he's in chicken nugget hell.  He has two ads - Dress and TV.  Does anyone know if Kevin is a comedian or his full name?
• • Dress - we've talked this one to death
  • TV - I actually like this one, the cut to the TV is pretty darn funny (notice it covers the door frame),  and I think all guys can relate to the wife saying: "why didn't you get a bigger one?"  Tag line: "For deals on everything, big or small...Come to think of it, eBay"
• Jim - There are four Jim spots.
• Snowboard - pretty funny, guess he won't use it though as he doesn't even know what bindings are.  Tag line: "For deals on sporting goods, come to think of it, eBay."
• • Gift -This one kind of slams homemade gifts - funny shot of him in the store with the snow mobile. Tag line: "For a better deal on better gifts, come to think of it, eBay." P.S. Granny smells bad.
  • Treadmill -I don't get this one, he got a treadmill he's not going to use?  "For used stuff that's as good as new, come to think of it, eBay."
  • Vest - Vests are the thongs of coats. Tag line: "For new clothes for a lot less, come to think of it eBay."
     
• The Michaels - There are two Michaels spots - they are both called Michael and seem familiar, but I can't place them - anyone know them?
• • Camera - This one is the funniest by far - I won't spoil it for you - it's about a digital camera, but that plays a supporting role.  Tag line: "For the same stuff at better price...Come to think of it eBay."
  • Scuba - Pretty good, but not as good as other one. Tag line: "For a good price on great gear...Come to think of it, eBay. 

Personally, I'd have to rate Michaels/Camera #1, Kevin/TV #2 and then they fall off from there.  What do you think?

Web Videos

The web videos feature the same three folks (Kevin, Jim and the Michaels):

• Kevin - Talks about kids love gadgets.  Tag line: "Baby-proof your wallet, see great electronics deals" - note, no Come to think of it tagline, maybe it's in the surround or front/tail of the ad though that we don't see here.
• Jim - Boat, DVD, Gifts, Toaster, Toothbrush - a series of 5 where Jim sits in a chair and rifs on various topics. These are pretty good if you get his dry sense of humor.
• The Michaels - Bike, Mini fridge, headphones, gifts, video games - 

Print

There are seven different print ads - each featuring a product picture with a tag line in the bottom left with the 'come to think of it' tag at the end.  For example, Jeans says "New designer jeans for fifty percent off still make your butt look completely amazing." Other products are purse, cookware, tv, mp3 player, drill and crib.  The most snarky is the crib: "Your baby won't know it's last year's model.  Babies don't know anything."

Rich Media banners and other banners (online)

The three rich media banners are pretty clever- this fashion one features a walking model and you can see pop outs of all the clothes she is wearing and then find that stuff on eBay. The other two are cookware (Mark Sullivan is chef) and  mp3 player plays a Sydney Wayser song on a nondescript mp3 player.

The other banner ads are categorical and target: apparel, cameras, gifts, golf and cutlery with some clever little animations - for example you cut a tomato and pear with the virtual knife.

Conclusion

After seeing the complete campaign, the whole thing is growing on me.  I'm still not a fan of the 'come to think of it' tag-line, but I do like they are are showing a very wide range of things here from new to used to refurb and golf, cutlery, apparel, etc.  The comedians for the TV commercials were a nice touch and add some personality to things which should help get attention.  The ads started running on 11/3 so we'll report in if we see any bump in traffic or transactions from the campaign.  Readers, share your thoughts in comments.

SeekingAlpha Disclosure - I am long Amazon and Google. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

Interesting Donahoe Video...

This came out this weekend and I thought it was interesting on a couple of levels:

• eBay still has some perceptions to fight - Maria introduces eBay as an 'auction site'
• They spend a lot of the interview talking about m-commerce.  FYI - I just finished a two part series on m-commerce and reviewed two application that do UPC scanning - check that out over at sister-site, CSEStrategies.com here.
• For feed readers, the video is embedded here so you may need to click through.

SeekingAlpha Disclosure - I am long Google and Amazon. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor whee I am CEO.

Interesting Donahoe Video...

This came out this weekend and I thought it was interesting on a couple of levels:

• eBay still has some perceptions to fight - Maria introduces eBay as an 'auction site'
• They spend a lot of the interview talking about m-commerce.  FYI - I just finished a two part series on m-commerce and reviewed two application that do UPC scanning - check that out over at sister-site, CSEStrategies.com here.
• For feed readers, the video is embedded here so you may need to click through.

SeekingAlpha Disclosure - I am long Google and Amazon. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor whee I am CEO.

Come to think of it...eBay - eBay set to launch new ad campaign

eBay has revealed that they are going to launch a multi-media (TV, print and certainly online).  The over-arching them is: "Come to think of it, eBay."  This is not only news-worthy, but a big deal for eBay sellers so let's dig in by first reviewing the last 5+ years of eBay ad campaigns and then do some initial thinking about the new campaign.

A brief history of eBay TV campaigns

This is the first eBay campaign in 18+ months and the history of the pre-Donahoe era campaign has been less than stellar. Here's a quick synopsis with links were still on-line and the general feeling out there in the eBay seller base about the campaign.

• 2004 - The Power of All of Us - Too touchy feely - nothing about selling things.
• 2005 - Find IT on eBay - Pretty decent, hit on the variety that eBay offers.
• 2006 - Do it eBay - Fun, but probably too kitschy. 
• 2007 - Shop Victoriously - The last effort of the Meg era - we were 100% focused back on auctions and this was an attempt to talk about how fun that is (well, was).
• 2008 - No ad
• 2009 - Come to think of it, eBay

Come to think of it...

I've embedded the first video here in the blog for your viewing enjoyment:

eBay is saying there's another video on the way and that there are two print ads with these themes:

• "Get the same new bag as celebrities with money left over for a tiny dog." - hits on the 
• “last year’s music player will still play this year’s music." - hitting on the eBay secondary marketplace theme.

Initial thoughts on the concept

The idiom dictionary describes "Come to think of it" as "I just remembered".   When I first watched the ad, something bothered me about it that didn't click until I saw that definition.

There are lots of great stories that I think eBay could be telling as they come through this turnaround like:: "We should be your first destination", or "we are the source for the best deals" or "we had trust problems and we've solved them", or "Hey you know us for auctions, now we have some great fixed-price deals!", they are saying - ", but instead, eBay is saying: "hey please don't forget us" or even worse, "You probably have already forgotten us.

So while I like the ad content (his wife gets a dress for 40% off), the tag line is kind of weak to me.  eBay is a $60b marketplace and their big come back ad campaign positions eBay as an afterthought.

The jury is still out, but I'm surprised at the weak positioning of the campaign.  Come to think of it, you'd think they could have come up with something a little stronger?  What do you think - let us know in comments.

SeekingAlpha Disclosure - I am long Amazon and Google.  eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

What's your m-commerce strategy?

Over on sister-blog, Comparison Shopping Engine Strategies (csestrategies.com), we have the first in a two part series around mobile e-commerce (m-commerce)  This is a hot topic and even if you are eBay-only, I think as a retailer you need to keep an eye on it so recommend you hop over there and give it a gander.

eBay's Q3 results - Wall st. pukes on Q4 - What will Amazon bring tomorrow?

eBay's results are out and the stock is down 5% or so in after hours trade. Q3 looked like a good solid 'meet/beat' Q, so let's dig in and see what's up.

Q3 - the turnaround in marketplaces seems to be working.

The metrics we watch most closely showed continued positive trends in Q3.

• Y/Y GMV (ex-autos) grew 10% compared to a trend that was as low as -16% in Q1
• Fixed price GMV is now 56% of GMV - up from 51% last Q  46% in the year ago period
• Sold items were up 30% y/y

The only concerning marketplace datapoint is the active user data which remains anemic - still topped out around 89m users.  This is up only 2% y/y.

Other interesting tidbits:

• eBay is previewing a diamond ring builder at http://diamonds.ebay.com
• Management seemed pretty up-beat during the call
• Donahoe mentioned they are going to launch a substantial Q4 campaign this year which sellers will like to hear.

Q4 - Hmm - storm ahead or conservatism?

So this sounds pretty good, what could be wrong?  Analysts were forecasting eBay's Q4 revenue to be $2.26b and eBay's guidance released today suggests a $2.25b mid-point.  This is clearly below expectations (albeit slightly) and some expectations were hoping to raise that mid-point which clearly won't happen.

Additionally margins came down due to a change in mix between the core business, BML and other lower-margin lines of business (Skype).

The big question from today's results are: Is eBay being conservative and managing expectations or are they seeing a grinchy holiday ahead?

We'll report the Amazon results via sister-site Amazon Strategies.

SeekingAlpha disclosure: I am long Amazon and Google.  eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

My prediction on the 2009 hot toy of the year...

It's a Friday night and I thought it would be fun to do a lighter post.  This one came to me when evaluating some eBay auction data.  Auctions are generally very very down y/y, but I noticed an interesting blip -a product that has a crazy amount of bid action on one product in particular.  I dug into it and am going to go out on a limb and call the 'hot item of 09' early.  Hold on to your seats readers and remember you read it on eBay Strategies first.

Drum roll..... (hint: they are so fun, but without the mess!)

I'm predicting that the HOT toy of 2009 will be Zhu Zhu pets.  What, you ask, is a Zhu Zhu pet.  Well a YouTube is worth a zillion words so here goes:

There are four main Zhu Zhu pets:

• Mr Squiggles - A light brown hamster
• Num Nums - A grey hamster
• Pip Squeek - A yellow hamster
• Chunk - A white hamster

The above retail for $8 and are going for $20-30 already on eBay. On top of the animals, the genius is they have a huge assortment of add-ons - you can buy a maze of habitrails, a little car, a ball - pretty much all the stuff a real hamster would need, but more expensive, is available for your Zhu Zhu.  The accessories range from $10 to $20+ and there are a mind boggling large number of them: (click to enlarge)

This isn't a simple wind up toy...

Many people seem to dismiss Zhu Zhu's  as a simple wind-up style toy.  They are actually a complex robotic simulation that has three modes of operation and a proprietary 'pet code reader'.  Check out this PDF of the instructions on this robotic pet.   All that's great, but what I think is really amazing about this toy is the range of age groups attracted to it.  I've seen a 3yr old and an 11yr old (boys and girls) freak out about it and immediately want to try to collect all 4 (they 'talk' to each other).  We live in a period where toys are becoming more and more fragmented along age lines - for example, Barbie's only appeal to a very small age window now (5-7 maybe?), where they used to appeal to a 5-15yr.

Conclusion

The Zhu Zhu is a cool new product that has a lot of buzz.  It appeals to a wide swath of the kid population, has a reasonable price tag, and appears to be already be in crazy short supply.  As of this writing (10/0/09) there are a fair number of Zhu Zhu's in some Wal-mart's.  I'm hearing they are not easily found in Targets or TRUs, yet they say they are coming.  My advice to you is if you have a kid in the 3-10yr range, go ahead and start trying to find a Zhu Zhu or you'll be behind the eight ball and buying them for $100 on eBay (from a seller that read this and gobbled up a bunch of supply ;-)  Reminder - walmart.com has a local search, so if you go to a Zhu Zhu item and do a 'find in store', you should see a list of stores near you that have the little robo-critters in supply.

Now it's entirely possible that several boat loads of these come in and the supply catches up to demand, but based on what we're seeing - there is a LOT of demand, so I think that's unlikely.

For all you Wall St'ers out there, unfortunately Zhu Zhu is made by a private company - Cepia out of of St. Louis of all places so you'll have to play this with the offline/online retailers.

Seeking Alpha disclosure - I am long Google and Amazon.  eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.  And yes, I have already grabbed a mini stockpile of Zhu Zhu's, so I guess I am long robotic hamsters ;-)  Wal-mart is a ChannelAdvisor customer.

September Same Store Sales - eBay continues growth trend.

We just completed collating our September same-store-sales (SSS) data for all of the channels we support at ChannelAdvisor (search, CSE, marketplaces, etc) and there are a couple of interesting data points to discuss as we exit Q3 and head into Q4.

Overall e-commerce

First, here's the chart that shows the SSS for eBay, Amazon and overall e-commerce.

I don't believe comscore has come out with with their data yet on September, so that part of the chart isn't filled in.  For overall e-commerce (ChannelAdvisor SSS in the chart) , we saw that dip slightly from 8.7% in August to 7.3% in September.  That's a small change and one that we don't think is worrisome.

Marketplaces (eBay and Amazon)

Amazon took a bit of a tick up, increasing from an already heady 53% growth rate to 55%.  Historically when there are major new books (Twilight, Harry Potter,etc.) we see a lift on Amazon, so internally we're calling this the Dan Brown September blip.

eBay continued to do well and posted a 5.1% y/y SSS month for Sept on the heels of the surprising August 4.6% upswing.  One yellow flag is that we're hearing from sellers that the new eTRS program and SR2 changes to search are very disruptive to their businesses.  That went into effect 10/1 so we'll keep a close eye on the October SSS to see if those changes slow/negate many of the Aug/Sept gains.  This feedback is anecdotal so far as the changes are < 5 days old and still taking a while to ripple through the ecosystem.

CSE

CSEs are holding steady - up 6.4% y/y for us and performing well.  They usually really pop in Q4.

Search

Paid-search SSS were up 5.2% y/y with CPCs rebounding considerably from the year ago period.  One interesting observation we've had as the Google/Bing wars have really warmed up and spilled into e-commerce.  When you look at a pure SSS share world as we are in this post, Google's real 'enemy' or threat maybe a better word is Amazon.  Amazon is on a clear path with their huge share gains to become the 'product search' of the internet.  Product-related (retail) searches make up 40% of google's revenue and if Amazon were able to chip away at that, let's just say it wouldn't be good for Google.

Conclusion 

September puts an end to Q3 where it appears we saw things rebound for e-commerce in general and definitely eBay specifically is showing another datapoint pointed at a recovery.  Is the consumer's wallet freeing up? Are we benefiting from easier y/y comps than we've had in a long time?  Yes!  Does this mean we'll have a monster Q4?  At ChannelAdvisor, we're counseling customers to look for a flat to up 5% Q4 this year and be pleasantly surprised should it end up coming in stronger than that.

We'd love to hear your Q3 thoughts and results with Q4 forecasts in comments.

Disclaimers

SeekingAlpha Disclaimer: I am long google and amazon. eBay is a minority shareholder in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

This data represents the combination of results from > 3000 online retailers that together represent > $3b in e-commerce via ChannelAdvisor's software. 

Our eBay data is not 100% of eBay, we have less international and a different category mix than eBay (e.g. we do not have any autos).

Our Amazon data is primarily what Amazon calls EGM - Electronics and General Merchandise, we have little to no exposure in the media (book/music/video) categories.

All data is ex-travel and groceries.