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July 22, 2006

eHoo/yBay! update

After every quarterly earnings cycle I report on what I call eHoo/yBay.  This is particularly timely becuase my Yahoo! sources are telling me talks are back on right now and it looks like we may see something soon.  Google just continues to pull away from the pack on all metrics and MSN/Y!/Ebay need to partner to take the juggernaut on.

From May: eBay (44b) + yHoo (46b) = yBay! (90b) vs goog (117b)  Google is 23% larger than yBay!

Today: eBay (34b) + yhoo (36b) = yBay! (70b) vs goog (118b)  Google is now 40% larger in market cap than the theoretical yBay!

This comparison really highlights a very disturbing trend.  Not only have eBay and Yahoo EACH lost $10B in marketcap, but Google has remained steady and with their new innovative products they could crush Q3/Q4 and thus increase their marketcap, which will continue to accelerate the delta.

Terry and Meg - let's get this deal done, integrate the companies and focus on catching up to Google.  Now is not the time to let egos and history get in the way.

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Comments

Personaally, the more that Google eats eBay/Yahoo's lunch, the happier I am. If Google ever goes into the auction business, there won't BE an eBay/Yahoo. If Yahoo! is crazy enough to partner with eBay, then they deserve it. eBay/Yahoo in my opinion are nothing but a legal crime syndicate, and will eventually implode under their own incompetence and greed. If that were to happen, I would be thrilled!

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