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August 26, 2008

Datapoint to ponder...

While working on tomorrow's webinar, I re-read eBay's Q2 results.

They reported that 43% of eBay's business is now fixed-price.  That would make eBay 'fixed-price' effectively a $27B marketplace.  Analysts guesstimate Amazon's 3P GMV at $4-6B.

Also, eBay's definition of fixed-price understates it substantially I believe. In eBay's definition it would be store listings, fixed-price listings and auction/bin where the user chose BIN.

Think of how many auctions close with one bidder.  In my mind those are transactions that should/could have been fixed-price.  I'd say that something like 40% of the auctions I checked in our dataset have one bidder.  With this expanded Wingo definition of fixed-price, I bet fixed-price is already 60-70% of eBay's GMV.  Also, eBay's 43% is by GMV, not transactions.  Most Motors/passenger vehicles are still auction-style listings and media is dominated by fixed-price so auctions I'd bet have a much higher ASP than fixed-price, so if you looked at the %'s by transaction you could get this number into the high 70%'s.

I guess my point is that eBay maybe much more down the fixed-price path than everyone realizes....

SeekingAlpha disclosure: I am long google and ebay

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