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November 25, 2011

Black Friday early-read and Thanksgiving details

This is the third update in our Holiday 2011 series. For details on the coverage plan and the seven themes we'll be looking at, be sure to read this post first.

BlackFriday early read

As of 4pm we are seeing:

  • Overall e-commerce: 15.8%
  • eBay:  15.1%
  • Amazon: 47.3%
  • CSE: 5.6%
  • Search: 27.3%

So the trends continue to look solid for a > 17% 2011 Holiday.  We won't be able to get a complete read until CyberMonday is in the rear-view.

There's still a lot of BF to go and last year a lot of the activity was in the hours (I guess after shoppers got home and started searching online for the items they couldn't find offline).  Stay tuned as tomorrow we'll have the full BlackFriday details.

Thankgiving details

Here is our CyberFive tracker, now with Thanksgiving details completed: (click to enlarge)

Thanksgiving_cyberfive_2011


Here is some color commentary on the Thanksgiving results.

  • Overall e-commerce was up 17%, matching our forecast, but below the November trend of up 28%. With only one day of the CyberFive behind us, we'll be able to know the holiday trend by CyberMonday.
  • eBay was up a solid 14.8%. Historically eBay is back-end loaded as retail sells out and eBay becomes the go-to online destination for the hard to get items.
  • Amazon was up a solid 30%.  Note that last year on Thanksgiving they were up 27.5% so that's a bit of acceleration.  While our SSS excludes customers less than a year old, when we peak at the 'all-in' data, it suggests some really big gains by newer customers.
  • Search was up 18.8%
  • CSE was up 4.5%, it's first materially positive showing in a year!

Holiday 2011 Seven Trends Update

In this post, i wanted to highlight trend number 6 - Mobile.  Through the year, we saw traffic from mobile devices in the 6-7% range and on Thanksgiving it spiked up to 10%.  What's really interesting is that Tablets (mostly the iPad) were the majority of that at 7.8% (with Smartphones at 1.2%).  It will be interesting to see if that trend inverts on BlackFriday as shoppers move from 'Tablet couch commerce' to shopping with their phones while they are out fighting the crowds.

SeekingAlpha disclosure - I am long Amazon and Google. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

 

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