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November 29, 2011

Holiday 2011: Wrap-up on CyberMonday and CyberFive

This is our tenth update in our Holiday 2011 series. For details on the coverage plan and the seven themes we'll be looking at, be sure to read this post first.

In today's post we have four topics to cover:

  1. CyberMonday wrap-up - the complete CM data is in!
  2. CyberFive wrap-up - Today completes the Thanksgiving->CyberMonday cycle we call CyberFive
  3. Holiday 2011 Themes revisited - we wanted to revisit our seven themes for Holiday 2011
  4. Upcoming Wall St. calls and Holiday 2011 SSS data releases

 

CyberMonday Final Results

The dust has settled and all of the orders that were delayed at partners have been processed.  Our final results for CyberMonday:

  • Overall we saw a 24.6% increase in sales 2011 vs. 2010
  • Amazon lead the charge at 52% (more details below)
  • Search was very strong at 38.6%
  • eBay came in at 10.4% (more details below)
  • CSE came in at 4.5%

Last year's CyberMonday was up 37%, but the earlier days in the CyberFive weren't nearly as active as they were this year.  While CyberMonday will still be a record volume day, these SSS percentages illustrate that the holiday continues to 'move up'.

CyberFive wrap-up

To put it all together we wanted to show the complete CyberFive and provide a couple of charts: (click to enlarge)

2011_cyberfive_final

Here you can see that so far we are trending up 19% in Holiday 2011 vs. 2010.  The holiday is far from over and we'll continue to track the data and plan on reporting at the end of this week on what some are calling CyberWeek (CyberMonday-Friday).

To illustrate how 2011 looks vs. 2010 here is an overall trend chart that compares last year's overall growth rates across the CyberFive to this year:

Cyberfive_overall_trends

This chart clearly illustrates that we had a smoother 2011 holiday than the big ups on Thanksgiving and CyberMonday we saw last year.  

Here's the Amazon trend:

Cyberfive_amzn_final

And the eBay trend:

Cyberfive_ebay_final


Holiday 2011 Themes revisited

With the above charts in mind, let's revisit our seven themes for Holiday 2011:

  1. Macro-economic trends - we've been forecasting a 17% y/y increase for Holiday 11 and it looks like we're on our way to coming in a bit higher in the 19-22% range.  The trick to all of this lies in theme 2 - if we have front-end loaded the holiday, then we'll cool faster than last year and come in below the CyberFive trend.  If the holiday 'distribution' doesn't change, then we'll clearly blow the 17% out of the water.
  2. Front-loaded holiday -  It's still too early to call this. We'll know by 12/10 or so exactly what is happening here.  One interesting trend this year is that the Sat+Sun after BlackFriday were very strong online.  Was that front-loading of online sales or did we take share from offline?  We do know that offline retailers (Target, Walmart, BB) opened the BF floodgates early. Stay tuned.
  3. Discounting - On BlackFriday we saw an unusual amount of discounting at offline stores.  Online prices seem to be holding pretty firm.  Amazon is being aggressive on some top sellers, but overall I would say their inventory is deeper this year. FYI, this mutes our 3P sales - as those sellers that compete with Amazon, tend to have to wait for Amazon to sell out before owning the buy-box.
  4. International - Looking at the data, so far things are pretty sluggish.  Historically we don't see the EU spike up until 12/1, so we'll have a better read on the EU online sales trends later this week.
  5. Channel Trends - Amazon has been a little slower than we saw last year.  I don't think this is cause for concern, because what we are seeing is for those merchants that compete with Amazon, it's a tougher year.  For those merchants that don't overlap much (e.g. eBags) they are seeing the up 100% type trend we saw last year.  I suspect when the dust settles Amazon's EGM segment will grow over our 50% pace.  As previously mentioned, eBay is a back-end loaded holiday channel, so we'll know more as we get into the first week of December.  So far as you can see in the chart above, eBay is a bit ahead of Holiday 2010.
  6. Mobile - We cover this topic in a guest post over at GigaOm.
  7. Social - We're still watching this closely and have some interesting data to share in early December.  Until then, I strongly recommend this piece by Scott Silverman over at TechCrunch.

Upcoming Wall St. Calls and Holiday 2011 data release schedule

We will be on three Wall St calls this Holiday season - please contact delisa.reavis at channeladvisor.com if you would like to request an invite (it's up to each firm who they allow on the calls).

  • 12/1 - Goldman Sachs - 12pm ET (with comscore and eBags)
  • 12/2 - Colin Sebastian, RW Baird - 11am ET
  • 12/9 - Mark Mahaney, Citi, 1pm ET

And here's our blog schedule:

  • December 2 - We'll release complete Nov10/Nov11 SSS results with color
  • December 8 - A look at the first week of December
  • December 19 - Holiday wrap-up.

Note we'll be watching the data closely and may elect to inject something earlier if we see interesting trends.

SeekingAlpha disclosure - I am long Google and Amazon. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

 

 

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