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November 09, 2012

Early Holiday 2012 SSS Report and news recap for first week of November

Today we are releasing an interim Same Store Sales (SSS) report for the first week of November (November 1-7 2012 compared to November 1-7, 2011 - inclusive).  If you have questions about our SSS methodology and disclaimers, be sure to check our January 2012 post here.

November 1-7 SSS early read on Holiday 2012

The following table has two columns.  On the left is a high-level recap of the October y/y SSS (full report is here).  The right column is the data from the first week of November 2012 (November 1-7 inclusive):

Nov_8_sss

As you can tell the first week of November, showed a slight ~2% slow-down for Amazon, a ~5% slow-down for eBay, a ~10% slow-down for search and a 15% slow-down for CSE.  

Digging into the data, we did see a substantial slow-down in the North East region from Hurricane Sandy. As a reminder, Sandy made landfall on October 29th and there are still ~1m residents without basic utilities, persistent gas shortages and other substantial disruptions that we believe have caused the holiday season to get off to a slow start.

In addition to Sandy, we also has the distraction factor from the election.

It's important to not project too much into one week's worth of data.  So far it feels like shoppers were distracted at the beginning of the season and we need them to make up for some lost time in the coming weeks.

Now here is a round up of some of the most interesting Holiday 2012 news items for online retailers.

Brief Holiday 2012 news roundup

  • eBay released their first ad of the season called Pony, it's definitely LOL.
  • Forrester came out with their 2012 holiday report.  In the report Sucharita Mulpuru calls for a 15% y/y increase bringing the holiday e-commerce predicted tally to a whopping $68.4b
  • ComScore released Q3 results, saying e-commerce grew 15% in Q3 and was positive, without details, on the prospects for Q4: 
    • “Such performance offers some optimism as we approach the holiday season, especially given recent improvements in consumer sentiment. With the housing market beginning to show signs of recovery in addition to increasing – if still underwhelming – job growth, there appears to be strong enough footing to support a very healthy online holiday shopping season.”
  • Wal-mart and other online retailers have started promoting their Black Friday in-store promotions. Wal-mart has caused some controversy by starting Black Friday on Thankgiving at 8pm - further shortening the holiday and lengthening the shopping season. Sears and other stores made similar announcements.  Pretty soon we'll have to think about calling it Black Thursday or Black Thanksgiving!

The remaining 2012 Holiday SSS release schedule

Next week, we will have an early read on week two (Nov 8-14 inclusive).

  • Thursday, November  15 - Early read on the second week of November and MTD trends
  • Tuesday, November  20  We’ll report November MTD trends pre-Thanksgiving
  • Thursday, November  22 (Thanksgiving) - We'll share an early read on Thanksgiving trends
  • Friday, November 23 (Black Friday) - We'll have an early read on Black Friday trends
  • Saturday, November 24 (Cyber Saturday)- We'll be releasing complete Black Friday details
  • Sunday, November 25 (Cyber Sunday)- We'll be sharing Cyber Saturday results
  • Monday, November 26 (Cyber Monday)- We'll be releasing CyberS unday results and have an early read on Cyber Monday
  • Tuesday, November 27 - We'll be reporting complete Cyber Monday and Cyber Five updates
  • Thursday, December 6 - We'll release complete November SSS results with added color
  • Friday, December 7 – We’ll take a look at the first week of December and Holiday YTD
  • Friday, December 14 – We’ll check in on the second week of December and Holiday YTD
  • Friday, December 21- We’ll see how things are looking during the third week of December
  • Monday, January 7, 2013- We’ll share December 2012 SSS and Holiday Wrap Up

 

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