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November 23, 2012

Holiday 2012 Update: Thanksgiving Mobile data and Black Friday Early Read

Today is Black Friday - November 23, 2012.  We are providing a intra-day update for Black Friday based on our Same Store Sales data.  

Before we dig into the Black Friday trends, we just received the mobile data for Thanksgiving and it's pretty astounding...

Thanksgiving mobile data

In the following table we highlight the device trends for a couple of periods.  First we recap our November 21 device trends blog post in the first two columns so you can see what the trend was before the holiday.  The third column is Thanksgiving 2011 for comparison purposes and the fourth column is Thanksgiving device share for 2012 (in yellow):

Holiday_2012_tgiving_mobile

Wow - Mobile effectively doubled Y/Y as a % of traffic and was up 11% from the earlier November trend.  The growth was pretty even on a y/y basis, but when looking at the first two weeks of November to Thanksgiving, SmartPhones made a 6.4% jump vs. tablets at 3.7%.

Here's what the data looks like in a pie chart format:

Holiday_2012_tgiving_mobile_pie

The conclusion from this data is that for non-holiday periods, mobile is trending to 25% of traffic and so far for the holiday it is trending towards an amazing 40!  Retailers frequently think of mobile in the 15-20% range and I suspect when the dust settles, the entire retailer ecosystem will be rethinking and prioritizing their mobile efforts.

Black Friday Intra-day read

As of 2pm ET, here's what we are seeing for black Friday:

Holiday_2012_BF_early_read.jpg

The first column recaps Thanksgiving 2012.  The second column recaps what we saw during Black Friday 2011 - we had several requests to recap last year's trends.  The third column is our early read on Black Friday 2012.

  • Compared to Thanksgiving, Amazon is up a whopping 11.3%.  They are being very aggressive on Black Friday promos and nowinstock.net is reporting they are sold out of many top selling toy and electronic items.   Also as a reminder you can track Amazon's best sellers in real-time through their great www.windowshop.com site and they also have iOS/Android apps with the same data.
  • eBay was a bit sluggish compared to Thanksgiving, but still ahead of last year's trend.  My guess is that Amazon benefits more when stores are open than eBay, so we should see the opposite of yesterday - Amazon will slow down in the evening and eBay will pick up.
  • Search and CSE were down a good bit this morning.  We'll see if they can get an evening surge like we saw yesterday.

What's next...

This will be our last post for today.  Tomorrow, we'll provide final data on Black Friday along with Black Friday mobile trends.

  • Saturday, November 24 (Cyber Saturday)- We'll be releasing complete Black Friday details
  • Sunday, November 25 (Cyber Sunday)- We'll be sharing Cyber Saturday results
  • Monday, November 26 (Cyber Monday)- We'll be releasing Cyber Sunday results and have an early read on Cyber Monday
  • Tuesday, November 27 - We'll be reporting complete Cyber Monday and Cyber Five updates
  • Thursday, December 6 - We'll release complete November SSS results with added color
  • Friday, December 7 – We’ll take a look at the first week of December and Holiday YTD
  • Friday, December 14 – We’ll check in on the second week of December and Holiday YTD
  • Friday, December 21- We’ll see how things are looking during the third week of December
  • Monday, January 7, 2013- We’ll share December 2012 SSS and Holiday Wrap Up
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