December 03, 2013

Holiday 2013 - Cyber Monday and Cyber Five FINAL

Note: This is a regular feature published by ChannelAdvisor highlighting the Same Store Sales (SSS) across our wide range of thousands of retailers and billions in GMV.  Details on the SSS including background, methodology, disclaimers and schedule can be found in this post.  Our detailed Holiday 2013 schedule can be found here.

Conference call today

FYI Bob Peck (Analyst at Sun Trust) is hosting a Holiday 2013 update today (December 3, 2013) at 11am ET and he has graciously offered for blog readers to be able to attend:

Dial in: 877-408-8913, passcode: STRH  / Replay: 888-567-0389 (avail through 12/10)

I hope you are able to make it and feel free to ask questions on the data you have been seeing in these updates. 

Cyber monday logo

Today we are releasing our FINAL Cyber Monday and Cyber Five data.  The following Cyber Five table summarizes where we are in the key holiday days so far (date aligned to last year):

13_dec_cyber_five_final

 

Cyber Monday - Not just for work any more!

The most interesting thing we saw for Cyber Monday isn't in the chart, but we saw it in our intra-day data.  Historically Cyber Monday has been a 'work-day weighted' day - meaning that the bulk of traffic/sales came in during the key 11-5pm timeframe.  This year, the same trend started (really ramped up at 11am when both East and West coast are online) , but the difference was the day sustained well into the evening hours (midnight ET!).  A couple of things we observed that played a role in this:

  • Many retailers released Cyber Monday deals in waves, effectively extending the promotional excitement.
  • Devices definitely played a role here (Couch Commerce or Bed Commerce) where we saw computer follow the old trend and tablet/smartphone fill in after - this supports the overall theory that these devices have some level of incrementality to desktop vs. cannibalization as some have feared/suggested.
  • Anecdotal -> The NFL Monday Night game was one of the most significant of the year (Go Seahawks!), and I imagine many US households were up late watching that with a lot of folks using the commercials/downtime to complete their Cyber Monday shopping.

Now all that being said, here's what this looks like from our perspective: (click to enlarge)

13_dec_cyber_monday_traffic

 

Cyber Monday and Five Channel Observations:

  • Amazon - Amazon is off to a strong holiday.  The key days of Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday were all over 30% y/y growth which is twice the rate of e-commerce.  Amazon was quite savvy managing their promotional calendar and supply/positioning of deals.
  • eBay - eBay's Cyber Five was also strong coming in at ~30% for the key five days.  The intra-day numbers were a bit lumpier than Amazon. eBay definitely cranked up their promotional engine from last year, primarily through the daily deal mechanism.   They definitely pulled that trigger the hardest on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.  
  • Search and CSE came in in-line with e-commerce growth with GS (Google Shopping) showing it's super-sized growth as it continues to take share from Search and CSE.

Here's a look at the marketplace trends through the Cyber Five.

13_dec_cyber_five_chart

 

Up next...

On December 5th, we'll have complete November results to get a broader picture of how the holiday is going.

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor CEO.

 

December 02, 2013

Holiday 2013 Cyber Monday Early Look (6pm ET)

Note: This is a regular feature published by ChannelAdvisor highlighting the Same Store Sales (SSS) across our wide range of thousands of retailers and billions in GMV.  Details on the SSS including background, methodology, disclaimers and schedule can be found in this post.  Our detailed Holiday 2013 schedule can be found here.

Cyber monday logo

Here is our second look at Cyber Monday - this is from midnight ET to 6pm ET.  We include Black Friday finals for comparison purposes:

13_cyber_monday_evening_6pm

Amazon and eBay are trending over 30% compared to last year. Google Shopping continues its gains as well.  Search and CSE slowed down through the day with Search currently trending ~6% and CSE 14%.   Overall it looks like Cyber Monday is (still) on track to be up over 30% compared to last year from a SSS basis, which would make it a new record day for e-commerce!

 

Up next...

Tomorrow, we will have the final Cyber Monday report.

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor CEO.

 

Holiday 2013 - Cyber Monday Early Look (10:30am ET)

Note: This is a regular feature published by ChannelAdvisor highlighting the Same Store Sales (SSS) across our wide range of thousands of retailers and billions in GMV.  Details on the SSS including background, methodology, disclaimers and schedule can be found in this post.  Our detailed Holiday 2013 schedule can be found here.

Cyber monday logo

Here is our first look at Cyber Monday - this is from midnight ET to 10:30 AM ET.  We include Black Friday finals for comparison purposes:

13_cyber_monday_early_1030

 As you can see all channels are up nicely as of 10:30 with the exception of eBay at 20.5%.  eBay doesn't start their Cyber Monday promotions until 9am PT, noon ET, so I suspect consumers are holding back a bit there.  It will be interesting to see how this trends through the day.  Overall it looks like Cyber Monday is on track to be up over 30% compared to last year from a SSS basis.

 

Up next...

More Cyber Monday updates coming soon... 

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor CEO.

 

Holiday 2013 Same Store Sales - Cyber Sunday Final!

Note: This is a regular feature published by ChannelAdvisor highlighting the Same Store Sales (SSS) across our wide range of thousands of retailers and billions in GMV.  Details on the SSS including background, methodology, disclaimers and schedule can be found in this post.  Our detailed Holiday 2013 schedule can be found here.

 

Cyber monday logo

(**Sweet Transformer font compliments of fontmeme)

Happy Cyber Monday!!

Before we jump into the results from the fourth day of the Cyber Five, Cyber Sunday, I wanted to wish everyone a happy Cyber Monday!  A little known fact, Cyber Monday was coined and promoted by shop.org (NRF's digital arm) way back in 2006. They also operate cybermonday.com and the proceeds go to their scholarship program that promotes digital retail for students.

Throughout today we'll be posting updates to the blog and today around lunch today  I'll be on Fox Business sharing some e-commerce trends we are seeing.

Cyber Five Update: Cyber Sunday

Today (December 2, 2013), we are releasing Cyber Sunday data.  As mentioned yesterday, the Cyber Weekend historically has been a breather while consumers get ready for the onslaught of Cyber Monday deals.  The data in chart below illustrates this trend for 2013:

13_dec_cyber_sunday_table

Some insights from Cyber Sunday:

  • Amazon, eBay and GS (Google Shopping) took a breather as previously mentioned.  Consumers hit the Thanksgiving/Black Friday sales hard and are taking a breather as they gear up for Cyber Monday.
  • CSE and Search  - Both of these increased a bit from Cyber Saturday. As previously mentioned these channels are primarily used for research which supports our theory that consumers are using the weekend to research (and do a bit of buying if they find something they like) via the search and CSE channels.

Devices:

By far the most interesting data point we see in the data today (highlighted in yellow) is the mobile trend.  We are now squarely over 40% of traffic coming from phone+tablet with phone at 21.5% and tablet at 18.9%.  Last year the trend was a spike on Thanksgiving and then the mobile settled down to the 30% range.  Now we see it increasing from Thanksgiving - this is definitely a change in consumer behavior and it will be interesting to see if it holds through Cyber Monday (historically has been computer driven) and through the rest of December.

These pie charts show the device mix we've seen so far from Holiday 2013 compared to last year:

13_dec_device_usage

Cyber Five trends in graphics

This chart shows the y/y growth trends so far for eBay and Amazon.  You can see the strong Thanksgiving and Black Friday and then the lull as we wait for Cyber Monday to kick in:

13_dec_cyber_sunday

Up next...

We'll be providing updates through the day and tomorrow moring will have a complete Cyber Monday report and wrap-up the results from the Cyber Five.

 

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor CEO.

 

December 01, 2013

Holiday 2013 Same Store Sales - Cyber Saturday Final!

Note: This is a regular feature published by ChannelAdvisor highlighting the Same Store Sales (SSS) across our wide range of thousands of retailers and billions in GMV.  Details on the SSS including background, methodology, disclaimers and schedule can be found in this post.  Our detailed Holiday 2013 schedule can be found here.

Pardon the interruption...

Before we jump into the holiday update, I wanted to make sure everyone knows about the big Amazon segment on 60 minutes tonight for Cyber Monday.  Also, there's a lot of hype around a 'big surprise'!  Is it an Amazon Phone? Bezos secret twin? Kiva robot (my guess), Kindle truck, Amazon store model, model of the new biodome HQ?  We will all know at 7pm ET on CBS!

 Here's a link to the promo: click me

 

Cyber Saturday SSS

Here is the updated Cyber Five chart with our Cyber Saturday (yesterday November 30) completed:

13_nov_cyber_sat_cyber5

First, it's important to note that most retailers (and channels like eBay/Amazon) have 'taken off' their Thanksgiving/Black Friday promos for Cyber Saturday and Cyber Sunday as they prepare to unleash the melee that is Cyber Monday promotions.  Because of that fact, historically we have seen a bit of a breather from Black Friday through the Weekend (Cyber Saturday and Cyber Sunday) and then we are on like Donkey Kong into Cyber Monday.  

As you see in the table, this was the case for all channels we track - their y/y growth slowed from Black Friday -> Cyber Saturday.

  • Amazon's Cyber Saturday came in at 23.7% compared to Black Friday's 34.7%
  • eBay came in at 28.1% compared to Black Friday's 38.7%, but still out-grew Amazon and is about twice the pace of e-commerce growth.
  • CSE (Comparison Shopping Engines), Search (AdWords) and GS (Google Shopping/PLA) declined sequentially from Thanksgiving->Black Friday->Cyber Saturday.  This has been the trend with these channels historically because they are used by consumers primarily for product research and are not as transactional as marketplaces.  Also, we believe that marketplaces are doing very well on mobile where you can see, especially on phone, search/CSE/GS are challenged with a 1% conversion rate.

Device Observations

Last year the high point for mobile was Thanksgiving at 37% (21% phone/16% tablet) and it was more in the 30% range after Black Friday.  This year we are seeing  a sustained ~40% mobile usage with phone making up the bulk of the increase).  With the 1% conversion rate, this is bad for retailers relying on mobile search as it only converts at 1% (less than a third the rate of computer/tablet), but as mentioned, it is good for top mobile apps/sites like eBay, Amazon and Walmart (according to Comscore's data).

Up next...

Tomorrow (Cyber Monday - Dec 2) we will have a morning post with the Cyber Sunday results and throughout the day we will have Cyber Monday updates.

 

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor CEO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 30, 2013

Holiday 2013 Same Store Sales - Black Friday Final.

Note: This is a regular feature published by ChannelAdvisor highlighting the Same Store Sales (SSS) across our wide range of thousands of retailers and billions in GMV.  Details on the SSS including background, methodology, disclaimers and schedule can be found in this post.  Our detailed Holiday 2013 schedule can be found here.

Today we are releasing the final day for Black Friday.  This is the second of the five days of Cyber Five:

13_nov_black_friday_cyber5

Some insights:

  • Amazon accelerated nicely y/y from Thaksgiving (30.7%) into Black Friday (34.7%) and performed well in the afternoon (yesterday's half time report had Amazon at 24.7% y/y growth so they made up a lot of ground through the rest of the day.
  • eBay saw the biggest day/day leap from 26% to 38% to ultimately grow faster than Amazon.  As mentioned in our half time report yesterday, eBay is benefiting from the scarcity of top electronics and toy items.
  • CSE saw a decrease from 30% to 18% from Thanksgiving->Black Friday.  CSE is a more research oriented channel than transactional so it makes sense that consumers were more research oriented on Thanksgiving and then went transactional on Black Friday.
  • GS declined from 145% to 126% - still a very strong showing.  We noted yesterday that for many queries for hard-to-find items, eBay was dominant in the GS listings.
  • Search declined from 37.7% to 13% - similar to CSE, search is more of a research tool vs. transactional.

In the device data we saw mobile (phone+tablet) get up to 39.6% of traffic - a bit higher than Thanksgiving's 39%.  Looking at the conversion rates and order %'ages the trend of consumers shopping on their phones, but buying on their tablets and computers is holding (at least for Search+CSE).

The 5.4% conversion rate for computers is one of the highest we've ever seen and really illustrates that consumers are clearly in buy mode.

Our next post will be tomorrow  (Dec 1) where we'll update you on Cyber Saturday's results.  We will be daily from here through the day after Cyber Monday.

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor CEO.

 

November 29, 2013

Holiday 2013 Same Store Sales - BONUS! Black Friday Half-Time Report

Note: This is a regular feature published by ChannelAdvisor highlighting the Same Store Sales (SSS) across our wide range of thousands of retailers and billions in GMV.  Details on the SSS including background, methodology, disclaimers and schedule can be found in this post.  Our detailed Holiday 2013 schedule can be found here.

We are following the Black Friday data closely and thought you would be interested in an update for how things are trending today.  This data is through noon ET on 11/29/13.  Historically we have seen the afternoon and evening hours trend up from the morning, so think of these as a 'start' to Black Friday.  In the following table we include Thanksgiving data as a comparison as well:

13_nov_black_friday_early_read

 

Here are some insights:

  • Amazon is having a slower start to Black Friday than Thanksgiving with ~25% growth compared to yesterday's ~31% performance.
  • Conversely, eBay is off to a solid start up 34.8% so far on Black Friday compared to 26.2% on Thanksgiving.  There are widespread reports of shortages on many top items this holiday (Xbox One and PS4, some Skylanders, Furby's, etc.) which could be benefiting eBay.
  • Like Amazon, CSE, GS and Search are also down compared to Thanksgiving, but we don't see that as a reason for concern given the half-day of data.

Our next post will be Tomorrow  (Nov 30th) where we'll update you on Black Friday.  We will be daily from here through the day after Cyber Monday.

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor CEO.

Holiday 2013 Same Store Sales - Thanksgiving final report - Day 1 of the Cyber-5

Note: This is a regular feature published by ChannelAdvisor highlighting the Same Store Sales (SSS) across our wide range of thousands of retailers and billions in GMV.  Details on the SSS including background, methodology, disclaimers and schedule can be found in this post.  Our detailed Holiday 2013 schedule can be found here.

 

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and is ready to hit the Black Friday sales (online) today!  Today we have several sets of data.  First, let's look at how Thanksgiving 2013 (Nov 28) compared ot Thanksgiving 2012 (Nov 22).

Note: Each year we track the five days from Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday and call that the Cyber Five.  For the next five days we will be filling in this table:

13_nov_cyber5_tg_results

 

The same trends we reported on yesterday at Thanksgiving 'half time' held through the day with each channel coming in with well over 25% y/y growth.  Given that we have six fewer shopping days this year that equates to 20% less days in the holiday, so it is encouraging to see such a spike on Thanksgiving.

What's also interesting is that mobile (phone+tablet) data was around 40% of traffic on Thanksgiving.  This shows that while folks were out or on the couch (tablet) they were doing their online shopping.  In mobile conversion rates, there is a nice increase for Computer and Tablet, but the phone conversion rate at 1.3% is still low.  It's not clear if consumers are using phones for pure research or if they are not converting because the phone-oriented sites are not as easy to use as computer (e.g. harder to type on phones, etc.).

Now let's look at some broader November trends to see how they compare to Thanksgiving.

Non-date-shifted November update

We have updated the table below to show the non-date-shifted November trends including MTD:

13_nov_tgiving_no_shift

A glance at this and you might be very concerned about Holiday 2013 - this shows the impact of the Thanksgiving 6 day shift this year on traditional non-date-shifted data.  Last year's data includes Thanksgiving-Cyber Monday plus an additional day and this year's data only includes Thanksgiving.  So in a pure Nov 1-28 y/y comparison, we are missing essentially five of the biggest days.  It's actually a bit of a positive that Amazon, eBay, Search and GS are positive at all.

Date-shifted November update

A better view of the trends is to look at the date shifted weeks of November working backwards from Thanksgiving as we have been doing and is now complete here with the three weeks before Thanksgiving of November:

13_nov_tgiving_date_shift

Here, for example if you look at the Amazon data, you can see a more traditional ramp into Thanksgiving that we have historically seen.

Conclusion and next post

The conclusion from this data is that we are off to a strong start to Holiday 2013, but we only have one out of ~24 days in the records so we need to see what happens through the Cyber Five.  We anticipated a surge in mobile shopping this year and ~40% is a new high water mark.   Also, a big action item from the data that we see is a need to improve conversions for the phone device. (40% of traffic is mobile, but only 25% of orders).

Our next post will be Tomorrow  (Nov 30th) where we'll update you on Black Friday.  We will be daily from here through the day after Cyber Monday.

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor CEO.

 

 

November 28, 2013

Holiday 2013 Same Store Sales - Thanksgiving (mid-day report)

Note: This is a regular feature published by ChannelAdvisor highlighting the Same Store Sales (SSS) across our wide range of thousands of retailers and billions in GMV.  Details on the SSS including background, methodology, disclaimers and schedule can be found in this post.  Our detailed Holiday 2013 schedule can be found here.

Happy_tg

First, I wanted to thank all of our customers, partners and team members @ChannelAdvisor for all of your support and hard work.   I hope everyone is having a great day with your friends and family and everyone has safe travels.

Date shifted analysis

Today we are releasing an early look at Thanksgiving data.  This data is date-shifted to compare Thanksgiving this year  (Nov 28) vs. last year (Nov 22).  Our thesis is that while CyberMonday used to kick off the e-commerce holiday shopping spree, with the advent of broadband at home and retailers promoting Black Friday sales on Thanksgiving, the start has moved up.

In this table, we compare the two week date-shifted period before Thanksgiving to our midnight-2pm ET early read on Thanksgiving to show the trends leading into Thanksgiving as well as Thanksgiving day.

13_nov_tgiving_table

 

A couple of insights from this view of the data:

  • Amazon - Amazon is running a ton of promotions already and you can see it working with a strong 48.5% y/y growth compared to last year's Thanksgiving.
  • eBay - eBay is also running Thanksgiving deals every hour that seem to be going well as they have increased their holiday growth rate to 20.3% from the earlier trends that were in the low teens.
  • CSE and GS also looked strong mid-way through Thanksgiving.  GS shows a bit of a slow-down from the 112% trend to 86% trend because this time last year retailers were realizing the strength of the program and were ramping budgets/skus/adoption.  So that's just a comp head-wind.  Regardless, you can't argue with 86% y/y growth in the e-commerce world where 15% is the baseline.
  • Finally search showed some signs of life ramping to 13.1% from the previous single digit trends we saw in the weeks leading into Thanksgiving.

I'm a graphical person and think this chart does a good job illustrating the relative growth rates for '2wks before' period compared to the 'halftime on Thanksgiving" period:

13_nov_tgiving_chart

Our next post will be tomorrow (Black Friday, Nov 29th) where we'll update you on November MTD, the final details on Thanksgiving (including device data/trends) and we'll start filling in our annual Cyber5 table.

 

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor CEO.

November 26, 2013

Holiday 2013 Same Store Sales - BONUS! Weekend before Thanksgiving results

Note: This is a regular feature published by ChannelAdvisor highlighting the Same Store Sales (SSS) across our wide range of thousands of retailers and billions in GMV.  Details on the SSS including background, methodology, disclaimers and schedule can be found in this post.  Our detailed Holiday 2013 schedule can be found here.

 We were reviewing some data from last weekend and we thought everyone would be interested in seeing this early datapoint.

What we did was compare the Fri, Sat and Sun before Thanksgiving from 2012 to 2013 (this is date shifted to deal with the unusually different holiday schedule this year).  This equates to November 16-18 from 2012 and Nov 22-24 for 2013 - we included three days to give the data a bit more 'depth'.

In this table, we included the prior datapoint for the time shifted '2 weeks before November' for comparison so you can compare to see how we are ramping into Thanksgiving:

13_nov_wknd_tg_table

Here you can see that for the most part, every channel appears to be trending up significantly heading into Thanksgiving (although three days are too few to call a complete Holiday trend).  This bodes well as retailers need the consumer to open their wallet earlier this year to help make up for the lost 6 days of Holiday 2013:

  • Amazon is up about 10% trend-wise from the previous week. Amazon has started their pre-TG Black Friday deals, which could have moved the needle.
  • eBay had the most significant bump, up 18%.  eBay has started opening the promotional spigot and it seems to be generating results.
  • CSE was relatively flat overall and with Google Shopping.
  • Search was up about 8% trend-wise.

I'm a graphical person and thought this chart does a great job illustrating the relative growth rates for '2wks before' period compared to the 'weekend before' period:

13_nov_wknd_chart

 

Our next post will be on Thanksgiving Day (Nov 28th) where we'll update you on November MTD, fill out the time shift above and have an early read on what we're seeing in the land of e-commerce on Thanksgiving Day.  After that we'll kick into daily mode through Cyber Monday, so stay tuned and everyone have a great Thanksgiving!

This blog post was written by Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor CEO.