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June 13, 2007

Are Google and eBay acting out Sopranos finale?

Wall St. is a buzz that eBay appears to have yanked all of their adwords from Google in response to the Google Checkout party at eBay Live.  Around noon ET, Wed June 13, I checked the usual suspect keywords that eBay invests in and found zero ads.

The big question - in this battle who is hurt worse?  Google or eBay.  I'm going to go with eBay, they are much more reliant on that quality google traffic than Google is on eBay's ad spend.  Sure, eBay is a top advertiser, but other advertisers will 'fill-in' so the net loss to Google is substantially lower than eBay probably anticipates.

Also, I made the logical point at the Bear Stearns event yesterday that if eBay continues to disallow Google Checkout on eBay, then Google maybe forced to compete more directly with eBay to get at that GMV.

In any event, things are getting interesting and I'm sure the phone is ringing off the hook between Meg and Eric. I'd love to be a fly on THAT wall!!! 

Meg: Eric, we're going to yank all our ads if you don't stop this party.

Eric: Meg, it's just a party, but do what you feel is  best for your business or we'd be glad to cancel the party if you take google checkout on eBay.

Meg to Matt Ackley: Yank them

(ebay traffic starting June 13 drops by 20-40%)

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